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I fail to understand your reasoning: 0.5e9 * 0.9^n < 0.5e9 < 1e9. In other words: No one is ever receiving $1B even if banks' balance sheets sum to more than $1B lent collectively. On par, each bank is holding a small part of the 0.5e9, and then the final individual is holding the rest.



But it could be the same, singular bank that the money gets deposited in and loaned from, repeatedly.


So? If you chain the loans, the bank might have the final balances: ($50M, -$450M) and ($45M, -$405M) and ($405M). The bank's net loan after settling internally is still $500M. Even if spread across banks, the sum of "real" money loaned out is still only $500M. If the loan at the end of the chain defaults, the loss is only $500M net.




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