> it's a space-based alternative that serves areas carriers have no financial incentive to cover
In a nutshell: they're serving a market that has less money to spend using more expensive tech than the current industry leaders. Maybe I'm wrong but it doesn't scream "massive profit".
I think Airplanes are going to be pretty profitable. They are sort of running a market cornering operation there. But, there will be competition eventually. Starlink is way faster than the alternatives so most airlines have switched and Starlink has rapidly increased their prices for aviation. Idk if it's enough though, they are definitely running lots of promos for home customers.
That sounds pretty niche. And airlines have already extremely thin margin (that have been eaten by fuel price increase). I wouldn’t be surprised if they drop that type of luxury
It’s another product for airlines to sell and make money off. It also serves to keep passengers entertained and content. It’s going to be a very strong market for Starlink IMHO.
> I think Airplanes are going to be pretty profitable.
Anything at sea, too. Going on a cruise? The cruise ship can offer you Wifi backed by Starlink for another few bucks. Or even your cell provider could get you hooked right up to Starlink for some phones.
Container ships, military vessels, even fishing expeditions could enjoy an internet connection and cell service.
It's big in the recreational boating community, as those folks generally have the disposable income to support a SpaceX ISP subscription.
Worldwide there's roughly 30 million recreational boats, whereas for commercial aircraft carrying people (not cargo) is more like 30k, so different orders if magnitude. It's highly likely boating would be a more profitable industry to satisfy demand for than airlines in the long term. That is unless they're charging exorbitantly more for airline contracts than personal boat use, which is totally possible.
Amazon Leo just signed delta as a customer so competition is indeed close behind.
I think SpaceX is an incredible company but at this valuation I’d expect it to have something as pervasive as the iPhone or Nvidia chips. It seems to have only small niches.
I have been flying a lot post Covid between it being a hobby of ours and consulting - I’m currently Platinum Medallion on Delta.
Frequent flyers choose their airlines for a lot of reasons - which airline has the most direct flights from their city, who has the best frequent flyer program, etc. The latency of the Internet is seldom a factor or the difference between 10Mbps and 50Mbps.
Non frequent flyers just buy the cheapest flights. The major three airlines make money off of business travelers, business and first class flights and credit cards.
If I’m flying for work and Starlink is that much better, quite possibly. My wife’s experience with other in-flight WiFi providers has been quite poor, often to the point that it barely works. Having said that, neither of us has been on a flight with Starlink yet.
No but the airline might choose starlink. I think a gogo business install is on the hundreds of thousands and annual costs in the tens of thousand for their Eutelesat based system.
There's enough vast terrestrial areas that have had no other options, so those areas may have pent up demand at least in the short term. However, I think they'll need to figure out how to further lower costs to target those poorer underserved communities that tend to come up in these discussions. That is, unless some sort of subsidy is put in place by governments that know that internet connected communities boost economic values, etc. Some such programs likely already exist in some form in the US, but are largely regional so may take some effort to integrate into those systems.
AFAICT, popular tech companies owned by cult of personalities tend to get overinflated evaluations. I agree that the promise of returns tends to be rosier than reality, but at least SpaceX makes a tangible product and isn't the average AI shilling company with no hope of returns. Here at least they have first mover advantage along with lower scaling costs than their competitors thanks to the rocketry side of the biz. I have enormous respect for what SpaceX has accomplished (even if I'm not a fan of the company's owner, etc.)
Some very rough math. $16 billion in EBITDA with 9million customers. This translates to about $1800 average annual subscription. Per month this is $150.
That is I think Starlink's target customers are ISP deprived. I asked Gemini estimate the size of that market. It said about 10 million in the US and over a 1 billion worldwide. I assume the Elon is pushing the 1 billion number. The problem I see is that outside the US, not everyone can pay $165 per month for internet.
You have to be more specific when talking about "socialist europe". The Netherlands, for example, has the best-managed pension system in the world. Despite what many people believe, "Europe" isn't one country and it doesn't have a single healthcare system, pension system, or anything else related to the welfare state.
US social security on the other hand is exactly as you describe pension systems in "socialist europe". Money taken from current workers and invested in state debt.
> "Hard line: Annual raise is 0%" -> What if it comes with a much larger stock grant? Or additional paid time off? Or something else you value? Will you really just mechanistically quit?
I don't want to be a pedant but more stock or time off are raises by another name. They're literally money the company gives you.
The company also would be giving you money if they, e.g. , gave you sets of annual Disney tickets, or a family membership in a luxury gym.
That's the whole point - there's an unlimited amount of potential outcomes that your original hard limit doesn't cover. Of course your final decision can be targeted towards "net value to you", but fundamentally, you can only assess net value once you have the facts.
Your hard limit becomes "I'll quit if I don't like it". Which, really, you don't need a "hard limit" for.
"The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, "stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.'"
You can argue that current market multiples are higher than 1929 [1] - and they're certainly high - but this also ignores the mechanism that drove that crash, focusing only on the symptoms. We simply aren't doing the kind of consumer margin buying that drove the '29 crash. It isn't even close. Average schlubs were leveraged to the stratosphere to buy shares of boring industrial stocks.
> The US stock market has nearly tripled since then. Literally the best period of stock growth in history.
The only thing I meant to point out was that a very high stock price by itself is no guarantee that there isn't a crisis around the corner. We plugged a lot of holes after 2008 and then reversed a lot of those fixes, I hear retail investors talking about their stocks at birthday parties again. Deja vu... of course this time it will be different. Or not. Let's just say that with the proverbial bull in the earthenware goods store on the loose if we only end up with another financial crisis that might actually not be so bad.
I actually calculated wrong. It went up 7.5x, not 3x.
In the roaring twenties stockbrokers allowed clients 10:1 margin. Investors were not as well-informed as they are today. There was no deposit insurance.
The SEC wasn't nearly as powerful as it was in 2024 and there was way more shady shit going on. In that respect, and the repeal of Glass-Steagall we're reverting to the pre-depression era.
Do you know the actual lessons of that crash? Because we don't allow retail investors to go 10:1 on leverage anymore. There are a lot more lessons and none of them apply to this situation (even Glass-Steagall). This is much closer to the dot com crash in 2001 in how it looks, just a lot more concentrated and probably a bit bigger. If all you got is "number go up too much" then you probably shouldn't be investing your own money.
The good news is that its almost all rich folks money on the line here and a small amount of dumb money. That's very different than, 2008 where it was mostly the indexes that got hit and that's more middle class/upper middle class concentrated.
> One of the ideal things that companies can do is not hire people
This, but unironically. Companies that make money without hiring anyone provide the most "value".
Simultaneously we should stop calling business owners "job creators". They're actually "job minimizers". They only hire people when there's no other choice.
Just think of the wasted man hours spent on integrating 30K new employees that supposedly the company didn't need. The time spent in meetings about restructuring departments, new points of contacts, reassignment of duties, figuring out who to promote, training the new hires, etc.
Now the company gets to it all again in reverse with much lower moral and excitement. The amount of hours & employee focus wasted on the bureaucracy of the hiring and firing over 30K employees instead of spending that time on improving the business should get you fired from leadership.
I view the opportunely cost, moral reduction, corporate politics, etc. differently then just money. I wanted to emphasize the long term effects of hiring then firing 30K has on businesses beyond what people typically focus on like payroll.
In a nutshell: they're serving a market that has less money to spend using more expensive tech than the current industry leaders. Maybe I'm wrong but it doesn't scream "massive profit".
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