What's the most alarmist position you could take here? Probably cutting off all US trade immediately.
But that doesn't result in a recession in China. They're growing at 7%, about the same as exports to the US. From that 7% subtract imports from the US (which would also be cuttoff and replaced by Chinese companies), and imports for export (which don't produce value for China)... and the result is that an end to US-China trade does not produce a recession for China.. they would still be growing by a few percent (note, the US economy only grows at 2-3%).
So they'll still have a growing economy... and they're still moving people from the rural areas into cities. So it's not clear to me that this collapses the housing bubble there. Possible though? Sure, maybe.
But that doesn't result in a recession in China. They're growing at 7%, about the same as exports to the US. From that 7% subtract imports from the US (which would also be cuttoff and replaced by Chinese companies), and imports for export (which don't produce value for China)... and the result is that an end to US-China trade does not produce a recession for China.. they would still be growing by a few percent (note, the US economy only grows at 2-3%).
So they'll still have a growing economy... and they're still moving people from the rural areas into cities. So it's not clear to me that this collapses the housing bubble there. Possible though? Sure, maybe.