The consensus in this thread is that Putin has gone crazy. But I think there's a rational angle that we must accept.
What's the cost of this to Putin? Think about it carefully -- for Putin himself, there is more or less only an upside.
1. China unfortunately is choosing to side with Russia. Realistically, we can't do much to interfere with trade between China and Russia. That means that sanctions that we're going to impose will have less of an effect.
(I hope this doesn't read as political flamewar, since it's my intent just to state the facts.)
2. I am rooting for Ukraine, and I think they have a chance at victory. But the reality is that the battle is far from over. And in the worst case, if Putin loses, he still has the option of employing a tactical nuke as a last resort. My point here is that even in the worst case for Putin, he still believes he can win, no matter what.
I'm hoping that Putin will lose, and does try to use a nuke, because that seems the most likely path to Putin finally being assassinated. But until that moment comes, we're witnessing the outcome of an unhinged person who is also acting rationally. (Both can be true simultaneously.)
China was siding with Russia right up until Russia started invading. Since then, China has been uneasy with this move.
Some of their state owned banks have suspended financing of Russian resources purchases [1]
And they really disliked Russia's declaration of the independence for the separatist regions in Ukraine. As a country with several separatist regions (including Taiwan), China simply can't agree with with the concept that an external country can declear one or more of it's regions as independent.
Wouldn't the result of Russia losing all it's allies be an even more unstable situation? Assuming others follow suit to China, tho I have no idea how realistic that is, for instance India isn't close to China AFAIK. Barring an internal coup, in the desperation of getting truly economically and politically isolated I could imagine an angry autocrat going for an true all-in.
> The consensus in this thread is that Putin has gone crazy.
I mean... Does anyone else remember the time (2004/5?) Putin stole a $25k Superbowl ring from a Patriot just because he knew he could get away with it (notably, while also observing "I could kill someone wearing this")? This is pretty much the same exact thing on a broader scale.
The global community should no longer stand open belligerence like this and I'm glad we're cutting them off from the world. Let's see how long they last in financial isolation.
It's too bad that the story that @Pornhub blocked Russia was fakenews, as that would have been hilarious.
I did NOT hear about that. But, in the grand scheme or things, having a $25k ring confiscated is on par with customs confiscating laptops as you cross the border. And no one is upset about that.
holy crap, that plays into my theory that he is testing the nato, really the world.
i mean, he can get away with this much, what else are they gonna let him do until they realize he is not interested in talks?
In Germany our freshly elected politicians are making fools of themselfs calling out for Putin to return to the negotiation tables... they say "we are waiting for you mister putin"... while he thinks "keep on waiting then, ill have my way with eastern europe"
>I'm hoping that Putin will lose, and does try to use a nuke
That doesn't end (nor start for that matter) with a nuke. You can bet Russians (and basically anyone alive) would prefer the scenario where he remains their autocrat than one where he triggers their apocalypse if not everyone's.
Hope I'm wrong to believe in mutually assured destruction, and hopefully we won't get to test the theory at all.
What's the cost of this to Putin? Think about it carefully -- for Putin himself, there is more or less only an upside.
1. China unfortunately is choosing to side with Russia. Realistically, we can't do much to interfere with trade between China and Russia. That means that sanctions that we're going to impose will have less of an effect.
(I hope this doesn't read as political flamewar, since it's my intent just to state the facts.)
2. I am rooting for Ukraine, and I think they have a chance at victory. But the reality is that the battle is far from over. And in the worst case, if Putin loses, he still has the option of employing a tactical nuke as a last resort. My point here is that even in the worst case for Putin, he still believes he can win, no matter what.
I'm hoping that Putin will lose, and does try to use a nuke, because that seems the most likely path to Putin finally being assassinated. But until that moment comes, we're witnessing the outcome of an unhinged person who is also acting rationally. (Both can be true simultaneously.)