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Removing Russia as gas supplier doesn't have to happen until next winter. It's a long term strategic decision. With proper incentives Europe could probably cut it's gas imports in half in the next five years through investment in renewable energy and become completely independent of Russian gas shortly after.


It isn’t entirely up to Germany to decide on a strategy that works for them. With the restrictions on SWIFT it’s entirely plausible that deliveries will seize, either because there no way to pay for them, or because Russia is willing to hurt itself in retribution.

Stores will get Hermany over the winter. No matter what happens, there will be a major push to improve efficiencies. Next winter might also see a return of COVID-era home office policies, allowing offices to shut down and reduce demand.


WFH may allow to reduce heating in offices, but will increase heating in homes. Net effect may be zero.


Meh SWIFT is a mild inconvenience. There is CIPS, BTC and even barter of goods. How to pay for a few billion euros of gas is the smallest problem.




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