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'free' ad supported products usually have engineering costs greater than compute costs, even up to billions of users.

Compute scales with the userbase. Engineering scales with the product featureset. That means a small userbase in general cannot support much engineering and therefore cannot have much complexity/features if it wants to be profitable.

That in turn puts big companies at a massive advantage. And in fact we see that - the vast majority of my time using the web is spent on big products (google, youtube, reddit, twitter), and only a small fraction on small sites (perhaps HN being the one exception here). Those big products won the battle for my attention.



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