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If both claims are true - unemployment rate is only 0.3% above the target AND unemployment rate is the highest in 4 years - then the only logical conclusions can be that either the unemployment rate has been exceptionally stable in the last years (or there was too little unemployment?), or 0.3% is in fact a significant deviation despite the number appearing small.


It's the former. The unemployment rate for the previous four years was pretty good and quite stable.

0.3% is not a large deviation. Here's historical data:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

During recessions, the number goes to around 10%. That's where it was in the wake of the 2007 crash. It fell pretty much consistently after that -- except for an enormous but short surge during COVID lockdowns. It bottomed out around 3.5% -- below the Fed target, and they raised rates to try to fix that.




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