> Objectively there is no bubble. Economic bubble territory is 100-200+ PE ratios.
Not sure I buy that analysis. That was certainly true in 2001. The dot com boom produced huge valuations in brand new companies (like the first three ones in your list!) that were still finding their revenue models. They really weren't making much money yet, but the market expected them to. And... the market was actually correct, for the most part. Those three companies made it big, indeed.
The analysis was not true in 2008, where the bubble was held in real estate and not corporate stock. The companies holding the bag were established banks, presumptively regulated (in practice not, obviously) with P/E numbers in very conventional ranges. And they imploded anyway.
Now seems sort of in the middle. The nature of AI CapEx is that you just can't do it if you aren't already huge. The bubble is concentrated in this handful of existing giants, who can dilute the price effect via their already extremely large and diversified revenue sources.
But a $4T bubble (or whatever) is still a huge, economy-breaking bubble even if you spread it around $12T of market cap.
Not sure I buy that analysis. That was certainly true in 2001. The dot com boom produced huge valuations in brand new companies (like the first three ones in your list!) that were still finding their revenue models. They really weren't making much money yet, but the market expected them to. And... the market was actually correct, for the most part. Those three companies made it big, indeed.
The analysis was not true in 2008, where the bubble was held in real estate and not corporate stock. The companies holding the bag were established banks, presumptively regulated (in practice not, obviously) with P/E numbers in very conventional ranges. And they imploded anyway.
Now seems sort of in the middle. The nature of AI CapEx is that you just can't do it if you aren't already huge. The bubble is concentrated in this handful of existing giants, who can dilute the price effect via their already extremely large and diversified revenue sources.
But a $4T bubble (or whatever) is still a huge, economy-breaking bubble even if you spread it around $12T of market cap.