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Probably the most reliable person I can think of to estimate that would be Hassabis at Deepmind and he's saying like 5 years give or take a factor of two. (for AGI, not Jesus)


head guy at Meta stated in a talk that current techniques ain't gonna be enough and they at least need to start to be more creative.


Yeah that seems the consensus. There are lots of people working on the stuff though.




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