I've lived through the '00 crisis, the '08 crisis, and a global pandemic. In all cases, there were signs the event was upon us, but you won't know for sure until the event is in full swing. The advice remains the same as it always does: carry as little debt as reasonably possible, don't overextend yourself without good reason, ensure sufficient liquid reserves, maximize employment and income opportunities, and have a strong network, both professional and community. Stay healthy to the best of your ability. Humans have existed for some time, we're going to exist for a while longer. I have many people who depend on me, and I'm prepared for anything short of global unexpected nuclear conflict. As long as you care, that's half the battle. Wishing you a favorable outcome.
To be early or late is the same as being wrong, and I had a friend who lost everything trying to be right take their life when they were wrong. It is true, you have the potential to make money, and if you can afford it, who am I to stop you? But, you can also lose it all, and I hope that those who try don't. It's just numbers in a database after all. Gamble responsibly. There is always someone smarter or faster on the order book.
I would love to find a "casino winning streak" spanning 6+ years :) while you and other people talk about bubbles and gambling the rest of us are getting rich and getting ready to retire... it is what it is...
the crazy ones might put all their chips in at some point and lose it all but of course you should read perhaps earnings reports (go quarter by quarter 2025 and hit it back to say 5 years which is decent enough timeframe and then perhaps think through whether or not investing is ridiculously profitable companies with insane growth and the same as putting all your chips on black :)
maybe if another decade goes by it'll be enough to convince people that just perhaps (to steal this from someone) while every one is digging for gold you want to be the one selling shovels :)
100% - that is the case. except this current "bubble" has been "bubbling" for years now (just look at HN commenters since say 2023-ish). the funny thing is something at some point will happen and there will be a pullback in the market (it's been on a run for waaaaaay to long) and everyone will be like "hey hey hey, see, told ya so, this was bubble all along" except most people that say we are in a "bubble" cannot even define what the bubble is what will it meant for it to pop. Cisco-like?! That is too much?! Perhaps 1/2 of the Cisco!? 1/4? no one knows but for sure I am expecting (markets are that way) that whenever there is some form of pullback (large or very large or meh) HN will go nuts with "told ya so"
the funny thing is, if you were invested in this bull run, even 45% pullback (certainly possible) and say you are an idiot (or just clueless) with a stoploss - you'd still be handsomely up from where you started from...
so we were in a farm-it-by-hand bubble until we invented tractors? :)
I am not trying to disprove the bubble because that is as impossible, you can’t disprove something which doesn’t exist other than in people’s figments of imagination. and whatever happens in the future the bubble people will find a way to justify that it was a bubble all along and non-bubble people will say it is a normal market correction after yeeeears of bull market. makes the entire bubble discussion meaningless
"you can't disprove something that doesn't exist" - Great, so you believe in God then. And Russell's teapot. And a natural number called fentanum, whose successor is itself.
