Sometimes you hear things that instantly change your views on the world.
I have to say that this above post, in about 10 seconds of reading it, has completely changed my views on assessing risk.
The idea of quantifying risk by counting the number of mistakes you are away from catastrophic failure is an excellent way to visualize risk. It's a simple way to calculate risk, and an even easier way to teach my kids. Thank you.
There's a similarly great passage in 'The Great Gatsby':
It was on that same house party that we had a curious conversation about driving a car. It started because she passed so close to some workmen that our fender flicked a button on one man's coat.
"You're a rotten driver," I protested. "Either you ought to be more careful or you oughtn't to drive at all."
"I am careful."
"No, you're not."
"Well, other people are," she said lightly.
"What's that got to do with it?"
"They'll keep out of my way," she insisted. "It takes two to make an
accident."
"Suppose you met somebody just as careless as yourself."
"I hope I never will," she answered. "I hate careless people. That's why I like you."
As a classic it's usually taught to teenagers... but I think you need to be out of school (probably late 20's), having seen some of the rhythm and trajectory of adult relationships/careers, to appreciate the characters.
I had heard about "Gadsby" first, so when high school friends told me they were reading "The Great Gatsby", I was quite confused about why their English class would assign a book most known for not using the letter 'e'.
I have to say that this above post, in about 10 seconds of reading it, has completely changed my views on assessing risk.
The idea of quantifying risk by counting the number of mistakes you are away from catastrophic failure is an excellent way to visualize risk. It's a simple way to calculate risk, and an even easier way to teach my kids. Thank you.