The debate about whether the 10x developer exists or not is based on a misunderstanding in my opinion.
To prove whether there exists a developer that is ten times as productive as an average developer, you would probably have a hard time both figuring out how productive an average developer actually is, producing a good measurement for productivity, and finding that unicorn. I'm not going to say it's completely unthinkable, there may be a few unicorns out there. Or there may not. In any case, you probably aren't going to find one. Save your money.
However, the statement isn't usually that there is a "10x average developer", the statement is that there exists a developer that has 10x the productivity of another developer. This isn't a myth, and it's not even controversial! Anyone can call themselves a developers, and there is obviously no lower bound in productivity! Ergo: you should quite easily be able to find a developer with 1/10 the productivity of an average developer, and the "myth" of the ten fold difference in productivity is confirmed right there.
From the article:
..."well-known fact" of 10x variations in software developers
vs.
There is a hidden inference at work: "there exist programmers
who are ten times as productive as the average"...
The former does not imply the latter. If "10x variation" would mean there is a 10x average, then surely the variation must be much larger if you consider the 1/10x average dev?
When it comes to programmer productivity, just try to look for solid developers. There are those that are surely twice as productive as others. Maybe three times. So pay them more. Or get two regular ones. Just avoid the 1/10 developer and you'll be fine. Not least because the 2x developers will likely quit if they are put in a team with the 1/10!
I came in on a project where an outsourced team of two had spent 6 months developing this little app. It was a mess, took over s minute to load, shipped half if Windows as dependencies, and didn't really work. In one week, I had a more functional version working, and with less than a month of further work, we had a finished product. So, that's a 50x difference, at s minimum.
Same on a small scale. Little feature needed adding to a tiny codebase (no hidden enterprise or framework stuff). One guy said he could do it in an hour or two, I took under 3 minutes. Sure, maybe he just failed to see the obvious, easy, FP, way and planned to build some huge OO system. Still, the overall result remains.
I dunno if these other people were average. But I am shocked at the lower levels of competency available and actively working and billing people.
Edit: And I know I'm nowhere near top coder level. I've a limited understanding of many things. So much stuff I read of other people's work impresses my greatly and leaves me knowing I'll never be top level. I don't have a one-in-a-thousand IQ. I find it very plausible there are people 10x me, and I'm probably above average.
To prove whether there exists a developer that is ten times as productive as an average developer, you would probably have a hard time both figuring out how productive an average developer actually is, producing a good measurement for productivity, and finding that unicorn. I'm not going to say it's completely unthinkable, there may be a few unicorns out there. Or there may not. In any case, you probably aren't going to find one. Save your money.
However, the statement isn't usually that there is a "10x average developer", the statement is that there exists a developer that has 10x the productivity of another developer. This isn't a myth, and it's not even controversial! Anyone can call themselves a developers, and there is obviously no lower bound in productivity! Ergo: you should quite easily be able to find a developer with 1/10 the productivity of an average developer, and the "myth" of the ten fold difference in productivity is confirmed right there.
From the article:
vs. The former does not imply the latter. If "10x variation" would mean there is a 10x average, then surely the variation must be much larger if you consider the 1/10x average dev?When it comes to programmer productivity, just try to look for solid developers. There are those that are surely twice as productive as others. Maybe three times. So pay them more. Or get two regular ones. Just avoid the 1/10 developer and you'll be fine. Not least because the 2x developers will likely quit if they are put in a team with the 1/10!